Gibraltar Fears Isolation, Economic Ruin If Britain Leaves EU

As Britain prepares to vote later this month on remaining in the European Union, people living in the British overseas territory of Gibraltar feel particularly vulnerable.

The tiny rocky outcrop is at the southern tip of Spain and has been a continual source of tension between Madrid and London. One Spanish government minister recently suggested that a British exit could prompt a renewed push for shared sovereignty, despite that option having been rejected in a referendum in Gibraltar in 2002.

Red phone boxes, double-decker buses and pubs, Gibraltar is an unmistakable British outpost in southern Europe.

The territory was ceded to Britain by Spain in 1713; a British vote to leave the EU could give a boost to Madrid’s hopes of reclaiming sovereignty over the territory, says Alasdair Pinkerton of Royal Holloway, University of London.

“It is part of the European treaty system that they’re not actively allowed to pursue a claim to Gibraltar, whilst Britain is a member of the European Union. So in a way, the European Union is protecting Gibraltar,” Pinkerton said.

Spain has in the past tightened border controls at times of heightened tension. Madrid has accused Gibraltarians of cross-border tobacco and liquor smuggling, and that could be used as a pretext for closing the frontier, effectively cutting off Gibraltar’s 30,000 residents.

“Like any sovereign state not bound by treaties, Spain would be absolutely entitled to close those borders to a territory that is no longer part of the European Union,” Pinkerton added.

‘Existential’ challenges

Gibraltar’s economy grew by more than 10 percent last year, fueled by its attractiveness as a low tax environment with access to the EU Single Market. Gibraltar’s leader, Fabian Picardo, fears the consequences of a vote to leave.

“How do you change your economic model to go from being able to sell to 520 million people to sell only to 32,000 people? These are challenges which are existential to the current economic model; we would have to completely reposition our economy, and it's something that's going to be very difficult,” he recently told reporters.

In Britain, polls suggest the "Leave" campaign has pulled ahead; but in Gibraltar a huge majority of residents say they will vote to stay in the European Union.

"There might be a lot of debate, as we say, 'You fight within the family, but you don't leave the family.' Because as British Prime Minister David Cameron said, 'What do you want to be, little England or little France?' We've got to be together.”

Campaigners who want to leave the EU say Spain already ignores the bloc’s rules on recognizing the territory’s sovereignty; but the people of Gibraltar fear a so-called Brexit could leave them cut off on the very tip of Europe.

英国这个月晚些时候准备投票决定是否脱离欧盟，而英国海外领地直布罗陀的人们则感到特别易受伤害。

这个小小的岩岛位于西班牙的南端，一直是马德里与伦敦之间紧张关系的持续根源。西班牙政府的大臣们最近提出，英国的脱欧可能会引发推动共享主权的问题死灰复燃。

红色电话亭、双层巴士、英式酒吧：直布罗陀无疑是英国在南部欧洲的前哨。

直布罗陀于1713年由西班牙割让给英国。英国的脱欧公投可能会推动马德里希望回收对直布罗陀的主权。

伦敦皇家霍洛威大学的阿拉斯代尔·平克顿说：“这是欧盟条约体系的一部分。英国成为欧盟成员后他们不被允许积极推动对直布罗陀的主权声索。所以某种程度上欧盟在保护直布罗陀。”

西班牙过去在紧张关系升级时，已经加强了边境控制。马德里指责直布罗陀人从事跨境烟酒走私；这可能会成为关闭边境的借口，从而有效地将直布罗陀的三万名居民隔离开来。

平克顿说：“如同任何一个不受条约约束的主权国家，西班牙绝对有权关闭那些与不再是欧盟一部分领土的边界。”

直布罗陀的经济去年增长了10%以上，主要是因为其低税环境和欧盟单一市场的准入对外界的吸引力。直布罗陀的领导人担心英国人公投脱欧的后果。

直布罗陀首席大臣费边·皮卡多说：“您如何改变这样的经济模式？从能够卖东西给5亿2千万人，变成只能卖给3万2千人？这些对目前的经济模式都是挑战，我们将不得不彻底重新定位我们的经济，而这将是很难做到的事情。”

在英国，民调显示主张“脱欧”的阵营已经领先。而在直布罗陀，这里的绝大多数居民说，他们将会投票支持留在欧盟。

直布罗陀居民伊万·纳瓦斯说：“可能会有很多的辩论，正如我们所说的那样，可以在家庭内打架，但是不能脱离家庭。正如卡梅伦所说：‘你想要什么？是小的英国还是小的法国。’ 我们必须要团结起来，不分离。”

支持离开欧盟的人表示，西班牙已经无视欧盟关于承认直布罗陀领土主权的规定了。但直布罗陀人民担心，英国脱欧将会使他们成为欧洲南端的孤岛。