Germany Warily Assumes Greater Global Role

Germany, Europe’s economic behemoth, has never been as prosperous, secure and free as it is today. It is the world’s fourth largest economy and one of the world’s top exporters.

Twenty-four years after its reunification, Germany has become America’s most valuable European partner, says Annette Heuser, executive director and founder of the Bertelsmann Foundation, the Washington-based arm of a German-based organization promoting trans-Atlantic ties.

Heuser repeated a question attributed to Henry Kissinger, the German-born former U.S. secretary of state, about which country served as the locus of European power.

"'What is Europe’s phone number?' I think we can give Henry Kissinger a very solid answer now. The number is in Berlin," Heuser said.

Reluctant leader?

Despite its growing influence, Germany has been reluctant to take the lead in larger global affairs, said Stephen Szabo, a scholar of U.S.-European relations and author of the book "Germany, Russia and the Rise of Geo-Economics."

"The whole idea is that [Germany is] an economic power, not a military or strategic power," said Szabo, executive director of the Transatlantic Academy research institute funded in part by the German Marshall Fund.

"Will Germany stop being a big trading state concerned only about trading, or will it now begin to rebalance and have a real foreign policy, not just an economic policy?" Szabo asked.

He acknowledged that Germany’s road to great power status is strewn with obstacles. The 2009 Eurozone debt crisis has been managed on Berlin’s terms, but five years of wrenching austerity measures shifted Europe's political landscape by giving rise to left-wing radicals and right-wing populists.

Their sole common ground is resistance to Germany’s solutions, Szabo said.

"I think there has been certain arrogance: 'We have the right way – you should just follow our way,'" he said of German leaders. "This is something that they will have to address."

Germany’s rise is occurring as the West confronts Russia over Ukraine and tries to stem security risks emanating from Islamic extremism, said Daniel Hamilton, director of Johns Hopkins University’s SAIS Center for Transatlantic Relations.

"All the turbulence associated with Russia, and the whole turbulence in the Middle East, could intersect at some point and affect Europe per se," Hamilton said. "All of this can replay back into Western Europe either in flows of people or flows of all kinds of nasty things affecting core Europe."

Stepped-up security

The crisis on Europe’s doorstep has led Berlin to step up its security presence.

Reinhard Bütikofer of the German Council on Foreign Relations said the German military is playing a major role in NATO's new rapid response force created in reaction to Russia's moves in Ukraine.

"And the Germans, who are never eager to get involved militarily, have put troops into some of the Baltic countries, helping countries that have weak military defenses of their own," Bütikofer said.

Ending another post-World War II taboo, Berlin is providing arms to Iraqi Kurdish forces battling Islamic State fighters.

Experts say Germany’s global economic reach depends on the stability of an international political order underpinned by Western strategic power, to which it is now contributing readily.

在华盛顿，贝塔斯曼基金会的安妮特•霍塞尔说，德国在统一的24年之后，成为美国最宝贵的欧洲合作伙伴。

霍塞尔说： “当年亨利•基辛格提出 ‘欧洲的电话号码是多少’ 这个著名的问题，我想我们现在可以给他一个明确的答案：这个号码在柏林。

然而，德国虽然影响力与日俱增，但它并不愿意在更重大的全球事务中出头。这是《德国、俄罗斯及地缘经济学的兴起》一书作者斯蒂芬•萨博的看法

他说：“它只把自己当作经济大国，而不是军事或战略大国。”

但是他又指出，问题是： “德国是否会改变只关心贸易的贸易大国地位，还是会作出调整，制定出真正的外交政策，而不是单纯的经济政策？”

萨博承认，德国走向大国宝座的道路充满障碍。2009年的欧洲债务危机是按照柏林的条件处理的，但是，五年的痛苦紧缩措施改变了欧洲的政治版图，使左翼激进力量和右翼民粹势力趁势坐大。

萨博说，这些人唯一的共同点是抵制德国的解决方案。

他说：“我想这里有一定的傲慢成分：‘我们走的路是对的，你们应该跟着我们走。’他们必须解决这个问题。”

跨大西洋关系中心的丹尼尔•汉密尔顿说，在德国影响上升之际，正值西方在乌克兰问题上对抗俄罗斯之际，也是西方对付伊斯兰极端主义造成的安全威胁之时。

汉密尔顿说：“与俄罗斯有关的一切动荡以及中东的一切动荡终有一天会交织在一起，对欧洲本身造成影响。所有这一切会反射回西欧，不管是以人员流动的方式，还是以影响欧洲核心的各种不良东西流动的方式。”

欧洲家门口的这场危机促使柏林加强了安全姿态。

德国外交关系理事会的莱恩纳德•布蒂科夫说，德国军队正在北约快速反应部队中发挥着中坚作用。这支部队是针对俄罗斯在乌克兰的行动而建立的。

他说：“从来不愿意在军事上卷入的德国，向一些波罗的海国家派出了军队，帮助那些军事力量薄弱的国家。”

德国打破了二战后的另一个禁忌，向抗击“伊斯兰国”的伊拉克库尔德人提供武器。

专家们说，德国的全球经济力量取决于国际政治秩序的稳定，这一秩序是西方战略力量维持的，而德国正在为这一力量作出贡献。